It's March Madness, even in the Republicanpresidential primary.
The GOP nomination race may have started as abunch of guys trying to be crowned the party'sundisputed champion (and one gal - MicheleBachmann once streaked across the primaryfirmament like a shooting star ... and for aboutas long).
Not anymore.
Now it's down to some dicey primary electoralcalculus, and a four-way fight to slice up theall-important delegate pie.
That's why, no matter what happens in Alabama andMississippi, Rick Santorum wins.
Because, despite what most people might think,Rick Santorum isn't trying to win the Republicannomination. He's trying to keep Mitt Romney fromwinning it.
Looking at it that way, any delegates he can takenot only help him, they're that many fewerdelegates Romney has in his struggle to reach themagic 1,144 a candidate needs to become theRepublican nominee.
Romney understands. He does his math the same way.How else can you explain his campaign crowingabout victories in Guam and the Marianas? Really?Santorum whoops him in Kansas and Romney firesback with, "Yeah? But I won Guam and the Marianas.I got more delegates than you. So there!"
Yep, it's March Madness all right. And the FinalFour are playing as rough as the college kids onthe basketball courts. It's all sweat and elbows,with more than one foul committed on the way to ascore.
Only in this one, they're counting delegates, notbaskets.
And Santorum can count. He knows it's almostimpossible for him to pull in the 900-plusdelegates he still needs to win in the races thatare left. There are only some 1,459 or sodelegates still in play. The chances of Santorum -or anyone for that matter - nabbing more thanthree-fifths of the remaining delegates is prettyremote.
But that's what he's counting on. Romney onlyneeds another 700 or so delegates to hit 1,144. SoSantorum just needs to keep Romney under thatnumber to force the fight to the RepublicanNational Convention floor.
Santorum's people (he's avoided saying it directlyhimself) have been urging Newt Gingrich to quit.The reason: If he were gone, Santorum figuresGingrich's votes would come to him, and he'dactually beat Romney in places like Michigan, Ohioand, especially, the South.
The truth is, though, having Gingrich stay in therace is still good for Santorum. And Romney, too.
There's evidence that Gingrich is splitting votes,and delegates, with Santorum. From Romney'sperspective, that probably helped prevent whatwould have been hugely embarrassing - and damaging- losses in Michigan and Ohio. But, in Santorum'sview, the votes for Gingrich might have cost him avictory or two, but at least Romney doesn't winthe delegates.
So, even if Santorum loses, he wins.
Tricky, huh?
