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Venezuela can expect a litany of problems and power grabs after the death of leader Hugo Chávez as he left behind a country in crisis. Expect a divisive era with Venezuelans fighting amongst themselves for the future of the country.
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Politically, the turbulence has impacted both Chavez's camp and the opposition. Even as he lay dying, Chavez was a symbol for the five million members of the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV). However, his absence leaves deep divisions and conflicts contained in the party's base.
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For the opposition, the crisis is not so obvious. Their leaders are a minority, just three governors of twenty states, including Miranda Henrique Capriles. They don't have nearly as much power as Chavista, but internal strife in the opposition can be more devastating.
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With regard to its economic, Venezuela requires unavoidable reforms due to its high fiscal deficit, inflation and public debt.
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Chavismo is not as united as when it operated lived in the shadow of its omnipresent and omnipotent leader. But without Chavez, contradictions and frictions will crop as he held the off over his fourteen year reign. Conflicts will now emerge between civilians and militarists; between revolutionaries and opportunists, and the believers and the corrupt.
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Regarding the first conflict, Elias Jaua's appointment in the Foreign Ministry and as vice president of Parliament, was a boon for Nicolas Maduro.
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If this advantage is consolidated , Maduro will strengthen his control over the party machinery and improve his electoral options.
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In truth, Venezuela's vice president has been campaigning since Hugo Chavez appointed him as successor in December 2012, shortly before the fourth operation of his cancer. Even so, Maduro has always had an adversary in the form of Diosdado Cabello, president of the National Assembly, hindering his ascension to power from the shadows.
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As Chavez was never sworn Maduro in, Cabello should be acting president until the appointment of a new president after the elections. Cabello's mandate in this case would be a ephemeral, transient and without much power.
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The struggle between Maduro and Cabello has moved to the Supreme Court of Justice, something Chavez hoped to avoid even when he was near death. Even after a complicated postoperative fourth surgery, Chavez hoped to appoint Maduro,as vice president
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If that had been the case, Maduro would have led the country until at least the elections. Both the vice president and the Cuban regime feared Cabellos if he were to be installed as the leader of Venezuela, even temporarily.
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Meanwhile, the opposition candidate has yet to be defined. Capriles received 45% of the votes in the presidential elections of October 7, but is not the favorite among all the opposition and the MUD has not yet appointed its leader.
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Miranda's governor is criticized his passivity and lack of political vision. The new generation of Venezuelan leaders have not yet found a way to reconcile the old with the new political organizations.
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And while the opposition seeks its candidate, Chavistas already have Nicolás Maduro, who leads in campaign since last December. This advantage will be seen in the results of the polls
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According to Eduardo Gamarra, a professor of political science at Florida International University (FIU), Chavistas can stay in power. In Venezuela there has been a phenomenon distinct from other totalitarian countries. Chavismo has not had to resort to fraud to win, the expert said in an interview with Terra.com
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The situations exists even though the country is polarized. Chavistas havea strong political machine, according to the expert.
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Furthermore, Gamarra said that there is a political phenomenon that includes solidarity and grief to sick or dead leaders that is strong enough to beat a candidate of the ruling party.
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A survey from Hinterlaces has Vice President Maduro in up front against Capriles. According to the survey, 50% of voters would vote for Maduro and 38% Capriles. In addition, 5.1% of those surveyed by the pollster found that Chavismo still best ideas for solving the country's economic problems.
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Although the survey favor Chavez's party, Gamarra contends that elections are won on election day, more in a polarized country where the opposition came close in the last election.
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The professor believes another factor that could work against the opposition is that it has not yet said whether the candidate will be Henrique Capriles again. The opposition must have consensus because if they are not united they can hardly expect to win the election.
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Gamarra insists that if the election go through in Venezuela, they will likely be as close as during last October. (Fuentes: Terra / Agencias).
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Venezuela can expect a litany of problems and power grabs after the death of leader Hugo Chávez as he left behind a country in crisis. Expect a divisive era with Venezuelans fighting amongst themselves for the future of the country.
Photo: AP
